As the NFL season reaches its midway point, all 32 teams remain mathematically alive for the postseason. Analytics expert Stephen Oh has simulated the remaining 151 regular-season matchups and 13 playoff games to project the entire 14-team NFL playoff bracket, division winners, and the ultimate Super Bowl LXI champion.
While every franchise still has a mathematical path forward, the computer model highlights major shifts in both conferences heading into Week 9. From shifting division leaders to historic sub-.500 playoff projections, the latest computer simulations offer a fascinating look at how the rest of the 2026 campaign could unfold.
AFC Playoff Projections and Shake-Ups
The AFC playoff picture saw dramatic changes following the Denver Broncos' upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs. That victory shook up the AFC West and currently positions Denver to capture the division title for the second consecutive year.
If the Broncos hold on to win the division, the Kansas City Chiefs face an unfamiliar path as a wild-card team. Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback in 2018, Kansas City has never played a road game in the wild-card round.
The projected AFC playoff field shapes up with the Buffalo Bills (6-1) leading the AFC East, the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) securing the AFC South, the Denver Broncos (6-2) taking the AFC West, and the Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) winning the AFC North. Wild-card spots go to the Chiefs (5-2), Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2), and New England Patriots (5-3), with the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns narrowly missing the cut.
NFC Landscape and Sub-.500 Division Winners
Over in the NFC, the Chicago Bears vaulted into the top spot of the NFC North following a dominant Monday night victory over the Seattle Seahawks. This marks the third different team projected to win the division over the past eight weeks.
- San Francisco 49ers (6-1) -- NFC West champion
- Chicago Bears (6-2) -- NFC North champion
- New York Giants (4-2-1) -- NFC East champion
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) -- NFC South champion
- Minnesota Vikings (4-2) -- Wild card
- Detroit Lions (4-3) -- Wild card
- Seattle Seahawks (4-4) -- Wild card
In a potential NFL first, the model projects two division winners finishing at or below .500: the Giants taking the NFC East at 8-8-1 and the Buccaneers claiming the NFC South at 8-9. Tampa Bay started the year 0-4 but surged after destroying division rivals the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons in consecutive weeks. This scenario leaves above-.500 teams like the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams out of the postseason entirely.
Road to Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium
The computer model projects a thrilling postseason culminating in a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Chicago Bears at SoFi Stadium. In the AFC, the Bills navigate past the Bengals and Jaguars, while the Bears defeat the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and 49ers -- aided by key performances from Caleb Williams and defensive additions like Jeffery Simmons.
Ultimately, the simulation predicts a narrow championship finish:
"Bills 27-26 over Bears... Bills quarterback wills his team to a win, and the city of Buffalo celebrates by having everyone jump through a flaming folding table."
Buffalo enters the postseason stretch with a 15.5% chance of winning it all, sitting as the clear favorite according to analytics.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are all NFL teams still in playoff contention?
Yes, heading into Week 9, all 32 teams remain mathematically alive to make the postseason, meaning even longshots like the Titans and Chargers still have a theoretical path.
Which team has the highest probability of winning the Super Bowl?
According to the computer simulation, the Buffalo Bills hold a 15.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl, standing as the only team with a probability above 10%.
What makes the projected NFC South and NFC East winners unusual?
The model projects that the New York Giants (8-8-1) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) could both win their divisions with records at or below .500, marking a first in NFL history for two divisional champions.