As the United States moves within one week of the midterm elections, Texas and Georgia early voting data suggests a significant shift in momentum. Nationwide, more than 39 million citizens have already cast their ballots according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida. While high-frequency voters continue to make up the bulk of the electorate, a new analysis of voter records indicates that Democrats are seeing increased engagement from less-frequent voters in two of the nation's most closely watched states.
In both Texas and Georgia, where high-profile Senate and gubernatorial contests are underway, the modeled party affiliation of early voters shows a notable trend toward the Democratic column compared to previous cycles. Although these figures do not represent actual tallies—as neither state registers voters by party—the modeling suggests that the Democratic base is mobilizing earlier than in the 2022 midterms.
Texas Sees Massive Shift in Early Turnout
In the Lone Star State, the scale of participation has already reached significant milestones. More than 5 million people have cast early ballots, representing over 20% of all registered voters in Texas. This surge comes as the state hosts competitive races for both the Governor's mansion and a U.S. Senate seat. Democrats are aiming to break a long-standing drought, as the party has not secured a statewide victory in Texas since 1994.
The current data shows a dramatic shift in the composition of the early vote. As of Monday, 51% of those who have voted are modeled as likely Democrats, while 45% are modeled as likely Republicans. This represents a 14-percentage-point swing in favor of Democrats compared to the conclusion of the 2022 early voting period, when Republicans held an 8-point advantage. This trend is particularly striking given that Donald Trump won the state by 14 points in 2024.
Key details regarding the Texas electorate include:
* Total early votes: Over 5 million as of Wednesday.
* Modeled Democratic share: 51%.
* Modeled Republican share: 45%.
* New voter engagement: 64% of voters who skipped the last four federal elections are modeled as Democrats.
Georgia's Competitive Landscape and Voter Modeling
In Georgia, more than 2.1 million voters have already participated in the early voting process. The state is home to two of the most expensive and closely watched races in the country. In the battle for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff is being challenged by Republican Representative Mike Collins. Simultaneously, the race for Governor features former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, running against Republican businessman Rick Jackson.
Modeling for the Georgia early vote shows Democrats holding a 54% share compared to 38% for Republicans. This enthusiasm is especially visible among those who do not regularly participate in every election cycle. Among Georgians who did not vote in any of the last four federal elections but have already turned out this year, 52% are modeled as likely Democrats, while only 12% are modeled as likely Republicans. In 2022, that same group of infrequent voters was much more divided, with 51% modeled as Democratic and 27% as Republican.
The Role of Habitual vs. Occasional Voters
A critical component of this analysis involves the distinction between "habitual" voters—those who have participated in all four of the last federal elections—and "less-habitual" or infrequent voters. Currently, habitual voters are making up a larger share of the early vote than they did in previous years. In Texas, these regular voters account for 60% of the turnout so far, up from 47% in 2024. In Georgia, they represent 67% of the early vote, compared to 55% at the same point in 2022.
While the total number of infrequent voters remains smaller than the core base of regular voters, their leanings could be decisive. Analysts note that "close elections are decided at the margins," and the current data shows Democrats capturing a much higher share of these less-regular voters than they did two years ago. In Texas, for instance, the Democratic lead among those who have not voted in the last four federal elections has grown from 11 points in 2022 to 43 points today.
Republican Strategy and the Final Push
Republicans are looking to Election Day and the final days of early voting to bridge the gap. Donald Trump held two rallies in Texas on Tuesday, a move intended to "turn out his base and motivate Republicans who otherwise might have sat out this midterm." The GOP strategy relies on a strong showing from their own less-enthusiastic supporters who have yet to head to the polls.
The modeling used in these assessments, provided by the firm L2, relies on historical data such as primary participation to predict voter leanings. It does not account for how an individual actually marked their ballot or who will show up on Election Day. With early voting scheduled to end this Friday in both states, both parties are in a dead heat to mobilize their remaining supporters before the polls close.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does early voting end in Texas and Georgia?
Early voting for the midterm elections is scheduled to conclude in both states on Friday.
Who are the main candidates in the Georgia races?
The Georgia Senate race features incumbent Jon Ossoff against Mike Collins, while the gubernatorial race pits Keisha Lance Bottoms against Rick Jackson.
How many people have voted early in the United States so far?
According to data from the Election Lab at the University of Florida, more than 39 million Americans have cast their ballots as of Wednesday afternoon.