The makeup of Congress shifted dramatically in the 2026 midterm elections, as Democrats decisively won control of the Senate and picked up dozens of House seats in what is on track to be one of the largest midterm routs in recent decades. However, the exact margins of Congress remain unclear as winners have not yet been projected in two Senate races and more than two dozen House seats. These outstanding contests include GOP-held districts with razor-thin margins, a few Democratic seats that could flip to Republicans, and several races in California and other Western states that still need to count ballots.
Senate Toss-Ups in Alaska and Mississippi
Democrats are set to enter next year with at least 54 Senate seats, compared to 44 for Republicans. Two Senate races still haven't been called, featuring one long-viewed battleground and one unexpected contest.
In the Alaska Senate race, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is running for reelection against Democrat Mary Peltola. The razor-thin race was rocked by a last-minute scandal over how another Dan Sullivan got on the ballot, and the count could drag on due to outstanding ballots and Alaska's ranked-choice voting system. Final results are not expected until 15 days after Election Day.
The Mississippi Senate race between GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Scott Colom has unexpectedly become a toss-up. State officials reported that thousands of mail ballots are outstanding and can legally arrive within five days of the election, alongside an unknown number of affidavit ballots.
Key House Battles and Defensive Fights
While Democrats flipped dozens of red districts, a few Republican House candidates are attempting to swim against the tide due to redistricting or favorable local politics:
- Maine's 2nd District: Moderate Democratic Rep. Jared Golden chose not to run for reelection, setting up a contest between former GOP Gov. Paul LePage and Democrat Matt Dunlap. Although Dunlap conceded, officials stated the race will proceed to ranked-choice tabulation starting Nov. 9 because LePage fell shy of 50%.
- Florida's 9th District: Democratic Rep. Darren Soto is trying to fend off Republican Dan Green in one of four districts Florida Republicans tilted right.
- Louisiana's 6th District: Following Supreme Court map rulings, this district is significantly redder, but with no candidate close to a majority under the jungle primary system, it could head to a runoff next month.
- Colorado's 4th District: Firebrand Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert is facing Democrat Eileen Laubacher after switching districts.
- South Carolina's 1st District: Outgoing GOP Rep. Nancy Mace leaves an open coastal seat contested by Jenny Costa Honeycutt and former Navy admiral Nancy Lacore.
Western Ballots and Same-Party Matchups
Results could take a while in various House districts due to ongoing ballot counting or runoffs. In several California districts, both candidates belong to the same party, meaning they have no net implications for the broader balance of power in Congress. These include matchups in the Napa Valley area between Rep. Mike Thompson and Eric Jones, as well as contests involving Doris Matsui, Mai Vang, Melissa Hernandez, Aisha Wahab, Jay Obernolte, Tessa Hodge, Ken Calvert, and Young Kim.
Other races feature Washington's 4th District between Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky, Washington's 5th District with GOP Rep. Michael Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy, and Utah's 4th District featuring GOP Rep. Mike Kennedy and Democrat Jonny Larsen.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current breakdown of the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
Democrats are set to enter next year with at least 54 Senate seats, while Republicans hold 44 seats, with two races remaining uncalled.
Why are election results delayed in the Alaska Senate race?
The race between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola involves outstanding ballots and utilizes Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, with final results expected 15 days after Election Day.
What caused the runoff in Louisiana's 6th District?
The district was redrawn after a Supreme Court ruling on maps. Because no candidate is close to a majority under the state's jungle primary system, the race could proceed to a runoff next month.