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Midterm elections could zap the data center buildout, experts say

Midterm election results could slow the U.S. data center buildout for AI, according to Wall Street analysts and new political shifts.

Midterm elections could zap the data center buildout, experts say
Illustration (AI-generated)

Recent sweeping victories by Democrats in the midterm elections could empower opponents of data centers across the United States, potentially slowing the rapid expansion of these controversial facilities. According to political research firm Redbud Consulting, voters approved 37 ballot measures restricting data centers by Wednesday afternoon, compared to only one measure allowing them.

Impact on the AI Revolution and Tech Investors

The fast-paced construction of data centers nationwide to fuel artificial intelligence has triggered significant public pushback. A CBS News poll from the summer found that Americans oppose building a new data center in their local area by a margin of more than 2-to-1.

Financial experts are weighing in on how political shifts will affect capital spending. Franklin Templeton chief market strategist Stephen Dover predicted the outcomes will spark a slowdown in construction, introducing fresh regulations and higher costs for developers. Meanwhile, Yorkville Ives & Co. technology analyst Dan Ives noted that tech investors are closely watching whether the midterms will decelerate the planned 800 to 1,000 data centers slated across the U.S. to power the AI boom.

Texas and Georgia Face Potential Moratoriums

Experts point to Texas, which accounts for 25% to 30% of upcoming data center capacity expected online by 2030, as a key state facing changes. Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican incumbent Greg Abbott in the gubernatorial race after campaigning on a temporary ban for data center construction. Because Abbott had already suspended data center approvals, GLJ Research CEO and founder Gordon Johnson noted that Hinojosa can easily maintain the freeze without needing a brand-new law.

In Georgia, the third-largest data center market, gubernatorial winner Keisha Lance Bottoms also brings significant implications for infrastructure. Bottoms campaigned on pausing new construction and announced plans to review tax incentives that previously fueled local development.

Key Facts from the Midterms

  • Voters approved 37 ballot measures restricting data centers, versus just one allowing them.
  • Texas represents 25% to 30% of data center capacity scheduled online by 2030.
  • Hinojosa's victory could stall 13 gigawatts of data-center power in Texas.
  • A summer CBS News poll showed Americans oppose local data center construction by a margin of more than 2-to-1.

Cooling an Overheated Sector Without Harming the Economy

While moratoriums may delay projects, economists suggest a tempered expansion could prevent excessive investments that lack strong returns on capital. Analysts with Oxford Economics stated that stricter policies will stretch project timelines, but slower medium-to-long-term construction will not necessarily harm the macroeconomy.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many ballot measures restricting data centers did voters approve?
By Wednesday afternoon, voters had approved 37 ballot measures restricting data centers, while only one allowing them was approved, according to Redbud Consulting.

What percentage of U.S. data center capacity does Texas account for?
Texas accounts for 25% to 30% of the data center capacity expected to come online by 2030.

What did the CBS News poll reveal about public opinion on data centers?
By a margin of more than 2-to-1, more Americans oppose than favor building a new data center in their local area.

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